To place this into context, the number of Bulgarians and Romanians that have applied for a UK NARIC Statement of Comparability during the past decade has increased significantly. When reviewing the combined application figures for Quarter 1 over recent years (as detailed in Figure 1 below) there are four distinct increases of note.

During 2007, the combined application figures were 110% higher than in 2006 and these are undoubtedly linked to the two countries joining the European Union in 2007. Two other large year on year increases were experienced in 2010 (79%) and 2012 (61%) and these are more difficult to explain; the 2010 increase might be linked to the economic downturn in Southern Europe and the latter may have been associated with the increased demand for temporary staff due to the Olympics. In 2014, combined applications have been 55% higher than last year and this does suggest that the lifting of worker restrictions from January 2014 has encouraged more applications from these specific countries. 

Figure 1: Combined number of Bulgarian / Romanian applications received in Q1, during the last decade

“Over the past four years we have seen a significant increase in applications as a whole, particularly from Southern Europe; but there has been a steady increase from Bulgaria and Romania as well,” commented Rachel Billingham, Head of the Information Services Group. Further analysis shows that the level of qualifications held by these migrants is relatively high. Analysis of 2014 data thus far indicates that 43% of Romanian and 51% of Bulgarian applicants hold qualifications that are comparable to British Bachelor degree standard. To provide a broad comparison, figures show 27% of the UK population hold a qualification higher than QCF level 4.

Nonetheless, it remains too early to say whether the current upturn is significant. Press reports in the UK for instance, have suggested that the influx of migrants has failed to materialise.

“When Poland and the other A8 countries joined the EU we didn’t see a dramatic rise in the first quarter,” commented Todd Agnew, Co-ordinator Management Information at UK NARIC. “It wasn’t until the third quarter that we saw applications significantly rise.”

UK NARIC will be keeping a close eye on how the profile of applications changes over the coming months and will report on any further developments.